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Despite continued political and macro uncertainty in 2025, the core thesis on financials has been validated in both Europe and the U.S. European banks delivered another strong year, with valuations re-rating from ~7x to ~9x earnings while earnings momentum stayed positive and 2027 estimates rose about 20%. Improvements were broad-based, helped by better-than-feared margins as […]
United States – One more cut while waiting for the new Chair This Wednesday the Fed is set to cut rates by 25 basis points. With terminal rates priced around 3% and the announcement of a new Chair still pending, markets will closely watch the dot plot and projections to assess how split the FOMC […]
April 2, 2025 (Liberation Day) marked the major turning point for markets: once the rules of the game became clearer, global equities regained lost ground. Earnings supported the rally throughout the year, with Europe and the United States delivering similar results but driven by different factors: in the US, performance was led by earnings growth, […]
UK Budget – Backloaded consolidation, event cleared Last Wednesday, Chancellor Reeves presented her budget after it was leaked by the OBR just minutes before the speech. Rates briefly rallied on the larger-than-expected £22bn headroom, but the move quickly faded once the heavily back-loaded composition became clear. A key point is that fiscal consolidation only begins […]
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