UK Budget – Backloaded consolidation, event cleared Last Wednesday, Chancellor Reeves presented her budget after it was leaked by the OBR just minutes before the speech. Rates briefly rallied on the larger-than-expected £22bn headroom, but the move quickly faded once the heavily back-loaded composition became clear. A key point is that fiscal consolidation only begins […]

Equities Pause despite solid earnings Global equities were overall muted over the past month, with a year-to-date backdrop remaining strong. Q3 results broadly confirmed resilient profit trends, and policy expectations stayed supportive, helping to limit downside risk. In the United States, markets were broadly steady. Earnings season was constructive, though expectations were elevated, while the […]

2025 moved from early-year volatility to a more stable regime as markets adjusted to the new U.S. policy mix and macro outcomes stayed better than feared, with resilient growth and supportive central banks. Looking into 2026, the two core risks are inflation and fiscal policy: any inflation re-acceleration or pre-midterm stimulus could put renewed pressure […]