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The key variable for markets is the duration of the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. A short conflict would likely result in only temporary oil price volatility, allowing markets to return to previous levels. However, a prolonged disruption could impact the Gulf region, which represents roughly 20% of global oil supply, potentially creating […]
Iran – All about Hormuz The second week of the conflict reinforced the view that the war may last longer than initially expected. The Iranian regime has appointed Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Ali Khamenei, as the new Supreme Leader. The appointment signals clear continuity within the regime and suggests a more hardline posture, pointing to […]
Iran – Tail risks rising, rates selloff The first week of the Middle East conflict has now passed, but the situation remains highly uncertain. After a muted reaction on Monday, markets sold off aggressively throughout last week. The move was more pronounced in rates and in heavily positioned risk assets. What remains critical to monitor […]
Iran – Operation epic fury unfolds Last Saturday, after weeks of escalating tensions, the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran, targeting senior leadership and key strategic military facilities. In a subsequent speech, President Donald Trump described the operation as aimed at regime change and indicated that military actions could extend for more than […]
A positive start to 2026 Global equities began 2026 on an upbeat note, with the MSCI World Index rising 2.3% YTD in USD terms. This performance was primarily driven by a global recovery in earnings, which was only partially offset by a contraction in valuations. Mirroring the trend seen in 2025, the US remained a laggard […]
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