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The key variable for markets is the duration of the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. A short conflict would likely result in only temporary oil price volatility, allowing markets to return to previous levels. However, a prolonged disruption could impact the Gulf region, which represents roughly 20% of global oil supply, potentially creating […]
Iran – Strikes on energy infrastructure push oil higher Last week, tensions in the Middle East escalated further, with continuous strikes from both sides. The US targeted key Iranian infrastructure, including Kharg Island, the core hub of Iran’s oil economy. Reports also indicate that Ali Larijani, a prominent regime figure, was killed in a strike, […]
Iran – All about Hormuz The second week of the conflict reinforced the view that the war may last longer than initially expected. The Iranian regime has appointed Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Ali Khamenei, as the new Supreme Leader. The appointment signals clear continuity within the regime and suggests a more hardline posture, pointing to […]
Iran – Tail risks rising, rates selloff The first week of the Middle East conflict has now passed, but the situation remains highly uncertain. After a muted reaction on Monday, markets sold off aggressively throughout last week. The move was more pronounced in rates and in heavily positioned risk assets. What remains critical to monitor […]
Iran – Operation epic fury unfolds Last Saturday, after weeks of escalating tensions, the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran, targeting senior leadership and key strategic military facilities. In a subsequent speech, President Donald Trump described the operation as aimed at regime change and indicated that military actions could extend for more than […]
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