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The much-awaited Warsh speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium provided markets with greater clarity, but not many answers. Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish assessment of the economy and offered a clearer indication of the Fed’s reaction function. Warsh stressed that short term interest rates should remain the primary tool for delivering the Fed’s dual mandate […]
US – Treasury support for treasuries Last week, the US Treasury stepped in to support the long end of the curve by announcing an increase in buybacks of longer-dated Treasuries. The move followed a roughly 40 basis point sell-off in 30-year yields over July and August and suggests that long-end yields are becoming an increasingly […]
Fed – Credibility on the line The July Fed meeting ended up raising market concerns about the new Chair’s commitment to inflation. The decision was to hold rates at 3.50–3.75%, in line with consensus. The commentary, though, underscored a degree of complacency towards the recent pickup in inflation, in contrast to the impression the market […]
ECB – September hike in sight Last week, the ECB left its key policy rates unchanged, as widely expected. With oil and gas prices now back close to the baseline scenario, President Lagarde delivered the partially hawkish message that investors had anticipated, noting that some Governing Council members had considered an immediate rate increase. At […]
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