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It is difficult to characterise the first half of 2026 in any other way than volatile or complex, with the Iran war creating macroeconomic uncertainty and the AI debate driving sharp share-price movements across the market. As ever, that environment presents challenges, but it also creates highly attractive risk-reward opportunities for active managers. European banks […]
Iran – Escalation without an oil shock Recent developments in the Middle East suggest that the memorandum of understanding previously agreed between the US and Iran is no longer operative. Missile and drone attacks have resumed, while the Houthis are threatening to widen the conflict by targeting regional infrastructure and potentially disrupting shipping through the […]
In the first part of the year, equity markets continued to deliver positive returns. Year to date, the US market is up around 8%, Europe a little more than 9%, Asia, in US dollar terms, more than 20%, while Italy remains one of the strongest markets, with a return of around 16.6%. Beyond the headline […]
Iran – Neither war nor peace Developments around Iran remain highly uncertain, but the most likely near-term outcome is a continuation of the same fragile “no-war, no-peace” environment, with periodic military exchanges followed by attempts to contain the escalation. The renewed hostilities and Trump’s comments that the agreement with Tehran was effectively over initially triggered […]
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