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In the first part of the year, equity markets continued to deliver positive returns. Year to date, the US market is up around 8%, Europe a little more than 9%, Asia, in US dollar terms, more than 20%, while Italy remains one of the strongest markets, with a return of around 16.6%. Beyond the headline […]
Iran – Neither war nor peace Developments around Iran remain highly uncertain, but the most likely near-term outcome is a continuation of the same fragile “no-war, no-peace” environment, with periodic military exchanges followed by attempts to contain the escalation. The renewed hostilities and Trump’s comments that the agreement with Tehran was effectively over initially triggered […]
Volatility is likely to rise In the second half of 2026, we expect volatility to rise. As a consequence, we are positioning our global credit strategies in a cautious and selective way. Since the beginning of the year, oil prices have increased by 40-50% and global oil supply has fallen by 10%. Historically, these kinds […]
Central banks – The end of guidance Central banks are moving away from guidance. Warsh’s appearance at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra reinforced this shift. With uncertainty still high across growth, inflation and labour market dynamics, policymakers are increasingly reluctant to pre-commit to a clear path. For the ECB and the BoE, the […]
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