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Bearish Lows, Bullish Highs: A week of extremes The first week of April was characterised by markets on a rollercoaster. On Monday 7th, the S&P 500 dipped 0.2%, nearing bear market territory. Treasury yields rebounded after an early drop, while the VIX hit 60 intraday—reflecting intense volatility. Traders were pricing in four rate cuts from […]
Tariffs – Mexican standoff US and China are currently stuck in a “Mexican standoff” on tariffs. Both parties escalated initial tariff announcements, and the current setup would make trade impossible. No party shows any sign of de-escalation, suggesting any talks will take time and pertain to broader topics than just trade. The implications for global […]
Trade wars – Escalation mode Global trade wars took an escalatory turn last week. The US government raised tariff rates on Chinese imports to 145%, and China matched the increase, bringing its rate on US imports to 125%. Some carve-outs for electronic hardware were announced over the weekend. Furthermore, reciprocal tariffs excluding China were postponed […]
Liberation Day – Trump shocks global trade Last Wednesday Trump imposed global tariffs at his proclaimed “Liberation Day”. The US imposed 10% blanket universal tariffs as a baseline, and then additional tariffs based on an odd formula dividing each country’s trade deficit by their imports. Overall, tariffs on Europe at 20% were roughly in line […]
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