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The key variable for markets is the duration of the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. A short conflict would likely result in only temporary oil price volatility, allowing markets to return to previous levels. However, a prolonged disruption could impact the Gulf region, which represents roughly 20% of global oil supply, potentially creating […]
Middle East tensions trigger global market sell-off After a relatively strong start to the year, during which Asian markets and Europe outperformed a broadly flat US market, global equities came under pressure following the coordinated military action launched by the US and Israel against Iran on 28th February. Iran’s retaliation, which targeted Israel and several Gulf countries, included attacks on energy production facilities and […]
Iran – Strikes on energy infrastructure push oil higher Last week, tensions in the Middle East escalated further, with continuous strikes from both sides. The US targeted key Iranian infrastructure, including Kharg Island, the core hub of Iran’s oil economy. Reports also indicate that Ali Larijani, a prominent regime figure, was killed in a strike, […]
Iran – All about Hormuz The second week of the conflict reinforced the view that the war may last longer than initially expected. The Iranian regime has appointed Mojtaba Khamenei, son of Ali Khamenei, as the new Supreme Leader. The appointment signals clear continuity within the regime and suggests a more hardline posture, pointing to […]
Iran – Tail risks rising, rates selloff The first week of the Middle East conflict has now passed, but the situation remains highly uncertain. After a muted reaction on Monday, markets sold off aggressively throughout last week. The move was more pronounced in rates and in heavily positioned risk assets. What remains critical to monitor […]
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