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Iran – Tail risks rising, rates selloff The first week of the Middle East conflict has now passed, but the situation remains highly uncertain. After a muted reaction on Monday, markets sold off aggressively throughout last week. The move was more pronounced in rates and in heavily positioned risk assets. What remains critical to monitor […]
Iran – Operation epic fury unfolds Last Saturday, after weeks of escalating tensions, the US and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran, targeting senior leadership and key strategic military facilities. In a subsequent speech, President Donald Trump described the operation as aimed at regime change and indicated that military actions could extend for more than […]
A positive start to 2026 Global equities began 2026 on an upbeat note, with the MSCI World Index rising 2.3% YTD in USD terms. This performance was primarily driven by a global recovery in earnings, which was only partially offset by a contraction in valuations. Mirroring the trend seen in 2025, the US remained a laggard […]
Iran – Deal or strike US military presence around Iran continues to increase as negotiations appear to stall, lifting market-implied odds of a potential strike. The key uncertainty remains the scope: a targeted “decapitation” strike against senior leadership, or broader action including nuclear facilities. Tehran remains unwilling to accept limits on its ballistic missile program […]
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