Fed – Credibility is back The first effects of the Warsh Fed are starting to show across markets, and the driver is straightforward: credibility. By reaffirming the 2% inflation target and maintaining an orthodox policy stance, the new Fed Chair has reassured investors that US monetary policy will remain anchored, rules-based and focused on price […]

Peace Dividend Building on a year already defined by geopolitical risk and AI excitement, equity markets pushed higher through the period, with the long-running US-Iran ceasefire negotiations finally crystallising into a framework agreement that resulted in the (temporary) reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and pulled oil sharply lower. The relief rally was global, but […]

FED – Hawkish debut, less forward guidance Last week, the Federal Reserve kept rates on hold at 3.50%–3.75%, in line with expectations. Kevin Warsh delivered a solid and credible first appearance, but the combination of his tone and higher inflation projections triggered a hawkish market reaction, with front-end rates moving more than 10bps higher. However, […]