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The key variable for markets is the duration of the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. A short conflict would likely result in only temporary oil price volatility, allowing markets to return to previous levels. However, a prolonged disruption could impact the Gulf region, which represents roughly 20% of global oil supply, potentially creating […]
Middle East — Iran stalemate, OPEC cracks The situation in the Middle East remains unresolved. The naval blockade is still in place, with only a limited number of ships able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Headlines during the week suggested that President Trump may be prepared to maintain the blockade in place for […]
Iran – Truce delayed, oil elevated Another week, another round of headline-driven volatility, with negotiations once again delayed. Earlier last week, planned US–Iran talks failed to materialise, further highlighting the fragility of the diplomatic process. Reports last Thursday also suggested that Mohammad Ghalibaf has stepped back from negotiations, implying that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps […]
V-Shaped recovery as ceasefire hopes unlock risk appetite After a sharp sell-off triggered in late February by the US-Israel strikes on Iran and the ensuing disruption to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, markets spent most of March on the defensive, with the Euro Stoxx 600 posting its worst month since mid-2022 at nearly […]
This note captures the Algebris global credit team’s main takeaways from the IMF meetings this month. Across both developed and emerging markets, investors remain constructive on risk despite the recent geopolitical shock. The clearest shared views were that energy disruption is still underpriced, defence spending is a lasting structural theme and the US dollar remains […]
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