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The key variable for markets is the duration of the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. A short conflict would likely result in only temporary oil price volatility, allowing markets to return to previous levels. However, a prolonged disruption could impact the Gulf region, which represents roughly 20% of global oil supply, potentially creating […]
Iran – Between exit and escalation The war in Iran has now entered its second month, with uncertainty continuing to build. Communication from the Trump administration has been inconsistent and at times unclear. In last Wednesday’s address, the President outlined developments but provided little guidance on the endgame. He reiterated that failure to reach a […]
Iran – The gulf chess board Last Monday, President Trump announced that negotiations with Iran were underway, following earlier threats to strike Iranian energy infrastructure. Later in the week, he extended the negotiation window, postponing the deadline to 6th April. High-level talks are ongoing, with both sides attempting to maximize leverage ahead of any potential […]
Middle East tensions trigger global market sell-off After a relatively strong start to the year, during which Asian markets and Europe outperformed a broadly flat US market, global equities came under pressure following the coordinated military action launched by the US and Israel against Iran on 28th February. Iran’s retaliation, which targeted Israel and several Gulf countries, included attacks on energy production facilities and […]
Iran – Strikes on energy infrastructure push oil higher Last week, tensions in the Middle East escalated further, with continuous strikes from both sides. The US targeted key Iranian infrastructure, including Kharg Island, the core hub of Iran’s oil economy. Reports also indicate that Ali Larijani, a prominent regime figure, was killed in a strike, […]
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