Autozölle – Das Spiel beginnt
Diese Woche unterzeichnete Präsident Trump eine Exekutivanordnung zur Einführung von Zöllen auf importierte Automobile und Autoteile. Die neue Regelung sieht einen 25%igen Zoll auf den Wert importierter Autos und Komponenten vor – ausgenommen sind jedoch USMCA-Länder (Mexiko und Kanada). Für diese Länder gilt: Nur der nicht-amerikanische Anteil am Wert eines Autos wird verzollt, Komponenten selbst bleiben zollfrei. Am stärksten betroffen von der neuen Massnahme sind China, Deutschland, Japan und Südkorea. Während Aktienkurse von Automobilherstellern unter Druck gerieten, bleibt der gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekt auf das BIP der betroffenen Länder voraussichtlich gering. Der Automobilsektor in Deutschland macht 16 % der Exporte aus und die Verkäufe in die USA entsprechen nur 2 % des gesamten Exportvolumens. Sollten sich die Wechselkurse nicht anpassen, dürften die US-Verbraucher den grössten Teil der Belastung durch höhere Autopreise tragen.
„Liberation Day“ naht – Bitte anschnallen
Am Mittwoch will Präsident Trump die verbleibende Runde an Zöllen ankündigen, die weitere Wirtschaftssektoren sowie sogenannte „reziproke Zölle“ betreffen. Einige Medienberichte deuten an, dass die Ankündigungen milder ausfallen könnten als befürchtet, mit Zollsätzen im hohen einstelligen Prozentbereich. Im Fokus stehen voraussichtlich die Top 20 Handelspartner der USA. Die Märkte werden insbesondere auf Folgendes achten, die tatsächlichen Zollsätze, Verhandlungsspielräume und den Länderumfang der Ankündigung. Trotz volatiler Aktienmärkte besteht die Sorge, dass die angekündigten Massnahmen schlimmer ausfallen könnten als derzeit erwartet – etwa durch dauerhafte zweistellige Zölle auf grosse Handelspartner.
Algebris Investments’ Global Credit Team
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